In an attempt to make some informed decisions regarding updates to the prize distribution for the v4 USDC pool, I converted the NPM draw calculator to a Brownie script and analyzed all prizes the Polygon depositors can claim in the first 16 draws.
Below plots show a graphical representation. The data on the x-axis are depositors sorted by their cumulative TWAB for the first 16 draws. Prizes (or values) are divided in a claimed and dropped category. The claimed category are prizes depositors can actually claim while the dropped category are prizes they cannot claim due to the configured maximum number of prizes they can claim per draw (currently this is set at 2).
The first plots shows claimable and dropped prizes for all depositors. It’s immediately clear that the biggest 500 depositors can regularly claim prizes while the amound of dropped prizes is only significant for the biggest 100 depositors or so.
The next plot shows a zoomed in version of the subset of prizes earned by the largest 100 depositors. Most of them max out the claimable prizes and the ones that do not usually only deposited after a couple of draws were distributed already. Interestingly, the number of dropped prizes tapers off quite quickly. While the biggest depositors lose out on more than 200 prizes, the ones in the second half of the largest 100 depositors miss out on around 10 to 20 prizes over 16 draws. I think this suggest a strong support for raising the maximum price cap to about 4.
Even smaller depositors in the 1000 to 1100 range regularly earn prizes. This category of depositors has around 100 USDC deposited and has won about 20 prizes over 16 draws.
A more numeric representation of this data can be found below. All identities together can claim close to 5000 prizes and about 3500 can never be claimed due to the claim limit. Most of these dropped prizes originate from the top 100 depositors.
Total prizes claimed (by all addresses): 4845
Total prizes dropped (by all addresses): 3445
Total prizes claimed (by addresses 0-100): 1997
Total prizes dropped (by addresses 0-100): 3108
Total prizes claimed (by addresses 1000-1100): 20
Total prizes dropped (by addresses 1000-1100): 0
The next plots show the total claimable and dropped value over all these draws and prizes for all depositors, the biggest 100 depositors and the ones in the arbitrarily chosen 1000 to 1100 range.
If we look at the total value claimed over the first 16 draws, we can see that the biggest depositors are able to claim about 3000 to 4000 USDC with some obvious peaks for the users that won a $2500 prize. Apparently there was one very lucky person around position 400 that can claim a $2500 prize while having less than $2000 deposited. In the 1000 to 1100 range, there was also one person that won a $100 prize (essentially doubling the size of his deposit).
Over the past 16 draws, about $130k is claimable and $35k will roll over after 60 days. The biggest 100 depositors can claim about half of all prize value.
Total value claimed (by all addresses): 127.410
Total value dropped (by all addresses): 35.260
Total value claimed (by addresses 0-100): 68.570
Total value dropped (by addresses 0-100): 31.890
Total value claimed (by addresses 1000-1100 ): 290
Total value dropped (by addresses 1000-1100 ): 0
If you have any questions about this data, ask below. If you want to see other things related to prize draws analyzed, please suggest so below and we’ll see if I can do that.