I extended my set of scripts for calculating the prize distributions a bit more to allow for easier analysis. Upon examining the results, I found some unexpected results.
This is a table of all $2500 winners sorted per draw up to draw 38:
network | address | draw_id | claimable_prizes | claimable_picks
----------+--------------------------------------------+---------+------------------+-----------------
ethereum | 0x5edcf547ece0ea1765d6c02e9e5bae53b52e09d4 | 1 | {2500,100} | {177340,6842}
polygon | 0x392027fdc620d397ca27f0c1c3dcb592f27a4dc3 | 1 | {2500,100} | {36853,26487}
ethereum | 0x5edcf547ece0ea1765d6c02e9e5bae53b52e09d4 | 2 | {2500,100} | {214958,65129}
polygon | 0x238926025e84475e3182774df480021470f8f978 | 2 | {2500,10} | {1970,894}
ethereum | 0x09528b6c6fc792eff0c70563c9b4c4c6e38da61d | 2 | {2500,10} | {4089,1386}
polygon | 0x3dc3aad10ea65bbba08f2bcaec64bb9d5948958e | 4 | {2500,100} | {9930,1500}
ethereum | 0x636bae3f76b4ccb486f50bf192ea2a8d22d1a79a | 4 | {2500,100} | {39879,15469}
polygon | 0x16a92f145f3b9ddca3bfc7e9d7fe97f1b193c22a | 5 | {2500,100} | {490,746}
ethereum | 0x5edcf547ece0ea1765d6c02e9e5bae53b52e09d4 | 5 | {2500,100} | {189901,6108}
polygon | 0xe07e487d5a5e1098bbb4d259dac5ef83ae273f4e | 5 | {2500} | {27}
polygon | 0x5e4c09abf931b6369ab451503be546241a101fdc | 6 | {2500} | {255}
polygon | 0x5c10afd2e8c8ae7e282aea60759209f32edfe3d8 | 7 | {2500,10} | {17393,3960}
polygon | 0x994db2e89a886a80c5495accfdb18e733b434a2b | 8 | {2500,10} | {1054,109}
polygon | 0x187dcdaac283c78f95a8c2ef3ba611b958f4f3e8 | 9 | {2500,10} | {7983,719}
ethereum | 0xd18236cd213f39d078177b6f6908f0e44e88e4aa | 10 | {2500,100} | {82098,29024}
polygon | 0xa6faa95b692962d1faaa6b43a6f20545e0d40861 | 12 | {2500,10} | {5169,5717}
polygon | 0x5a872919133bfe715ecb7fc6a12ee2b59768168f | 12 | {2500,10} | {6663,2114}
ethereum | 0xe866d36a84ff74ca4d9277abcb83640bb2cd2523 | 12 | {2500,10} | {51526,8371}
polygon | 0xd66f2f1d86c0c5477aa1612ca92f03297a5477b0 | 14 | {2500,10} | {51014,640}
polygon | 0x685c66df2a77fbc188371b3470d5a2adca538a03 | 15 | {2500,10} | {11216,3432}
polygon | 0x8ae76ffd692ed84ec160455cd15408fb5d8a00a4 | 16 | {2500} | {2117}
polygon | 0x3fed71848b74b9f3ff26544cad368c082cb31961 | 16 | {2500,10} | {14095,5076}
polygon | 0xf89bb80788a728688015765c8f4b75f96a87a5b3 | 18 | {2500,10} | {25643,4083}
polygon | 0x238926025e84475e3182774df480021470f8f978 | 19 | {2500,10} | {5950,1655}
polygon | 0xc28bbeb8dcf086aeaf6e50259c553288a16e2a97 | 20 | {2500,10} | {1943,1402}
polygon | 0xf81cf588c563c4134b26eac8dd468aba887f41b5 | 21 | {2500} | {4686}
polygon | 0xf89bb80788a728688015765c8f4b75f96a87a5b3 | 22 | {2500,100} | {43657,32850}
polygon | 0xf232f53d5782147342766d0ea98f96529aaebf6a | 23 | {2500,10} | {1190,955}
polygon | 0x5c10afd2e8c8ae7e282aea60759209f32edfe3d8 | 23 | {2500,10} | {19305,8418}
polygon | 0x1f5f84940f3d5dfb72cf4df10df3234f02794ca9 | 25 | {2500} | {660}
ethereum | 0x5edcf547ece0ea1765d6c02e9e5bae53b52e09d4 | 26 | {2500,10} | {48251,1498}
polygon | 0x85bd4f508b2cd7a17bdfca628059b3b787546726 | 27 | {2500} | {183}
polygon | 0x74060aebcddace26962f5614f12428c70e2492ca | 28 | {2500,10} | {1355,1421}
polygon | 0xbe80d8c96c0d5b5aed63b370b495650f30be3724 | 28 | {2500} | {3855}
polygon | 0xe3d799b498b5f307ba252a9f609e93a2faf37172 | 29 | {2500} | {2469}
polygon | 0x585fced8e5d357d6f7192de41d0b2d839795d437 | 30 | {2500} | {335}
polygon | 0x51bc9862ad17023fa88435f51fcaa6e677b2ca97 | 31 | {2500,10} | {8181,13237}
polygon | 0xc779f7bd848b56a606d8c61502da8264b11f420d | 31 | {2500} | {1066}
ethereum | 0x2024f13b2fdb7957feb422af38edd5218e79ce05 | 32 | {2500,100} | {10168,25131}
polygon | 0xd79b646031ae71f77de7a50cc5f189f5c62b7a5d | 33 | {2500,10} | {56340,4374}
polygon | 0x07e836e86f212229c5c4cea8fc556eca87cfab64 | 34 | {2500,10} | {5713,1211}
polygon | 0x9aa4e6641fefd0764bfebdeda637e7782d7ed4dc | 34 | {2500,10} | {1138,8317}
polygon | 0x685c66df2a77fbc188371b3470d5a2adca538a03 | 34 | {2500,10} | {2126,6400}
polygon | 0x0092f2ed23041e6c1355d94a9f4338cf779d03d4 | 34 | {2500} | {840}
polygon | 0xc7e36bc2f80543b6c244b147606f9501da6c6561 | 35 | {2500} | {273}
ethereum | 0xd18236cd213f39d078177b6f6908f0e44e88e4aa | 36 | {2500,100} | {4541,42877}
polygon | 0x915e0833be6713260af1ccf7467a37411fb790c0 | 37 | {2500} | {1130}
polygon | 0xd79b646031ae71f77de7a50cc5f189f5c62b7a5d | 38 | {2500,100} | {36773,60614}
polygon | 0x2f49b721cc086be9495d5067958f69098d3c72ab | 38 | {2500} | {265}
polygon | 0xa8afffdffb30c29db59788d357d778dd4210feea | 38 | {2500,10} | {5543,348}
The thing that struck me is that, while there are a couple of days / draws without a single $2500 winner. There are a lot more days with more than one $2500 winner:
Winners | Days
-----------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 (5) | 3, 11, 13, 17, 24
1 (22) | 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 33, 35, 36, 37
2 (6) | 1, 4, 16, 23, 28, 31
3 (4) | 2, 5, 12, 38
4 (1) | 34
In total, over 38 draws, we have 50 $2500 winners. Thatās 1.3 winners on average per day. Granted, most days we only have one winner, but Iām still somewhat concerned about this. Obviously, maybe my tools suck and they are wrong. Itās impossible to fully validate these results since prizes that are not claimed are āinvisibleā.
Letās take a look at the addresses from draw 34 though. Luckily for me, all of them claimed their prizes for draw 34, confirming that my calculations are not off. If we look at the amounts they claimed and at the picks they claimed, those are also fully in accordance with the data spit out by my scripts.
Claim by 0x07e836e86f212229c5c4cea8fc556eca87cfab64
Claim by 0x9aa4e6641fefd0764bfebdeda637e7782d7ed4dc
Claim by 0x685c66df2a77fbc188371b3470d5a2adca538a03
Claim by 0x0092f2ed23041e6c1355d94a9f4338cf779d03d4
Whatās your take on this? There are lies, damned lies and statistics, but at least to me above data seems to be a bit too much to be purely a statistical outlier. Could there be something wrong with the prize distributions? Do we need to look into this a bit further before tweaking them again?