I calculated the maximum USDC that can be claimed per draw (and how much is dropped):
Draw | Claimable prizes | Dropped prizes | Total
--------+--------------------+------------------+----------
1 | 9140 | 7170 | 16310
2 | 13470 | 7290 | 20760
3 | 5580 | 7590 | 13170
4 | 11210 | 7430 | 18640
5 | 13500 | 5650 | 19150
6 | 9940 | 4960 | 14900
7 | 9290 | 4020 | 13310
8 | 10990 | 4390 | 15380
9 | 9890 | 4260 | 14150
10 | 9600 | 4480 | 14080
11 | 8730 | 3970 | 12700
12 | 14670 | 4940 | 19610
13 | 8300 | 4140 | 12440
14 | 11540 | 4130 | 15670
15 | 11370 | 3700 | 15070
16 | 14280 | 3950 | 18230
17 | 8960 | 3610 | 12570
18 | 10450 | 3450 | 13900
19 | 11450 | 3700 | 15150
20 | 9990 | 3220 | 13210
21 | 11960 | 3100 | 15060
22 | 11460 | 2650 | 14110
23 | 15040 | 3460 | 18500
24 | 10320 | 3060 | 13380
25 | 12230 | 2790 | 15020
26 | 12810 | 2350 | 15160
27 | 12770 | 2430 | 15200
28 | 15750 | 2160 | 17910
29 | 12020 | 3370 | 15390
30 | 11940 | 3590 | 15530
31 | 14680 | 3540 | 18220
32 | 11730 | 3810 | 15540
33 | 11700 | 2890 | 14590
34 | 19860 | 2280 | 22140
35 | 12630 | 2190 | 14820
36 | 12970 | 2350 | 15320
37 | 13610 | 2480 | 16090
38 | 17070 | 2060 | 19130
39 | 10580 | 1910 | 12490
--------+--------------------+------------------+----------
Total | 463480 | 148520 | 612000
Some interesting conclusions:
- In the beginning, most days the total claimable prizes are relatively in line with the prediction of about $14k, but for example day 34 is a pretty massive outlier.
- Looking at the dropped prizes value, this decreases significantly the further down we go in the draw list. I’m guessing people are catching up on the wallet splitting technique to maximize APR.
- Due to more people splitting over wallets, it seems we are exceeding our projected $14k expenditure on most days.